Recent developments are reshaping the global trade landscape on both the diplomatic and legal fronts, with direct implications for supply chain professionals.
A Measured Pause in US–China Trade Friction
Global shippers welcomed a cautious reprieve as China’s Ministry of Commerce announced several steps to ease tensions with the United States. Among them: a pause on mutual port fees, a suspension of export restrictions on critical minerals such as gallium and germanium, and a delay in the implementation of reciprocal tariffs.
These actions are widely viewed as a signal toward stabilization after years of escalation. For carriers and importers, the result is a short-term reduction in cost volatility across trans-Pacific routes. Container and bulk markets that had been bracing for higher levies through 2028 now have a window to recalibrate.
Still, the fundamentals remain unchanged. The strategic rivalry between the two nations continues to shape global trade flows and sourcing decisions. What we’re seeing is a cooling period, not a full reset.
IEEPA Tariffs Under Challenge
Even as trade diplomacy finds steadier footing, a significant legal question is unfolding at the US Supreme Court: whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grants the executive branch authority to impose tariffs without explicit congressional approval.
During recent oral arguments, justices across the ideological spectrum expressed skepticism about whether tariffs fall within the law’s intended scope. Should the Court rule against the administration, billions of dollars in duties could be challenged, and importers may face a complicated path toward potential refunds.
The administration has already indicated that even in the event of an adverse ruling, it intends to preserve its tariff authority through alternative mechanisms such as Section 232 and Section 301. Regardless of the outcome, the case introduces new uncertainty for importers, exporters, and logistics partners navigating long-term supply chain planning.
What Importers Should Do Now
Based on the potential for retroactive changes, importers should not wait for a ruling to begin preparing. Now is the time to:
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Gather shipment-level details for all entries impacted by the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs.
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Document liquidation dates to understand which entries may fall within any refund window.
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Organize records proactively so teams can act quickly if the Court rules against the tariffs and refund opportunities emerge.
Having this information readily available will help importers pivot immediately once a final decision is made.
Strategic Takeaways for Supply Chain Professionals
The overlap of diplomatic easing and legal volatility underscores the need for flexibility in 2026 planning. Freight markets may see short-term stability, but regulatory and policy risk remains fluid.
Supply chain leaders should consider:
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Reassessing sourcing and routing assumptions while trans-Pacific conditions remain favorable.
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Working with customs partners to understand exposure to tariff reclassification or potential refunds.
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Strengthening collaboration across logistics, compliance, and finance to adjust quickly to new rulings or trade measures.
UWL’s Perspective
Periods of uncertainty often bring opportunity. With the right mix of visibility, flexibility, and informed planning, businesses can use temporary reprieve to strengthen their competitive position. UWL remains committed to helping partners anticipate change, minimize risk, and find advantage amid evolving trade and policy conditions.
If you have questions about how these agreements may impact your supply chain, please reach out to your UWL representative for support or contact us below.
